The hottest multiple negative factors gather, and

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Multiple negative factors gather, natural rubber continues to be weak

key factor analysis:

☆ the peak season of rubber cutting is coming, and the supply is increasing rapidly

the peak production season in Thailand is coming around the middle of May. The rapid increase in production has led to a continuous decline in local spot prices. At present, the price of No. 20 standard rubber has fallen to about $4650/ton, and the price of No. 3 cigarette rubber has also fallen to about $5400/ton. Generally speaking, the output of Thailand in May will increase by 10000 tons compared with that in April, reaching more than 260000 tons, bypassing agricultural steps in the future. In terms of annual output, the chairman of the Thai Rubber Association is expected to produce 3.46 million tons. The flood in the early stage reduced the forecast value by about 1%, which is much lower than the previous estimate. At present, the weather in Thailand is conducive to rubber cutting. At present, the rubber cutting area in southern Thailand is about 80%. In the next two weeks, there will be a comprehensive rubber cutting, and the supply of raw materials will increase steadily. Seasonal characteristics determine that the output of Indonesia and India in May is not expected to fluctuate greatly. The output of Malaysia may increase slightly. The peak season of rubber production in Vietnam will come in June, and the output in May is about 45000 tons

the data recently released by the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) shows that the growth rate of global natural rubber production this year is expected to be lower than the previous expectation. The expected output is expected to be 10.025 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 10.06million tons, and the reduction is not much

in China, the low temperature and rainy weather in early April made the rubber disaster in Hainan production area serious, some rubber trees withered and died, and the cutting time was postponed. It is expected that some rubber forests will not be able to cut rubber normally until June, two months later than the normal year. In the long run, it will take three to five years for rubber trees to recover from damage, and the output will decrease in the next few years

☆ the demand of the downstream tire and automobile market is mixed, and the overall demand is slightly weak.

the performance of the domestic and foreign automobile markets is uneven. The production and sales of North America, Germany and emerging economies are relatively strong, while the performance of China, Japan, France and other markets is poor, mainly due to the impact of the earthquake, the change of China's automobile market policies and the cancellation of some stimulus plans. At present, the share of "emerging" markets in global light vehicle sales has exceeded that of economically developed regions

Figure 1 monthly sales of U.S. cars unit: 10000%

the figure shows the trend of monthly sales of U.S. cars. (image source: Bloomberg)

in April 2011, the U.S. auto market achieved a year-on-year increase in monthly sales for eight consecutive months, with an annual sales conversion rate of 13.2 million vehicles, the third month of this year, and an annual sales conversion rate of more than 13 million vehicles. Among them, the sales of light vehicles (mainly passenger cars, SUVs and pickups) reached 1157900, an increase of 18% year-on-year. The monthly sales volume of light vehicles was 4.2181 million, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, while the sales volume in the same period last year was only 3.5279 million. The three giants continued the momentum of steady growth in April. Among them, the sales volume of General Motors reached 232500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 27%, and the sales volume of Ford reached 189000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 13%,; Chrysler's sales increased by 23% to 117200 vehicles

the growth rate of China's automobile market continues to slow down. In the first quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales of various models fell significantly. Among them, how is the progress of the passenger performance agency adopting high-precision gear acceleration micro motor drive friction body to stop the linear project? The hull of the sample ship is almost done, and the production and sales of reciprocating friction sports cars increased by 8.37% and 9.07% respectively, which fell sharply compared with the same period of last year. The production and sales of commercial vehicles increased by 4.66% and 4.86% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate fell a lot. In April, the sales volume of new cars (excluding mini cars) in Japan was 108824, the lowest monthly since January 1968, with a year-on-year decrease of 51%, a record high, and a sharp decline for two consecutive months since March. In April, 2011, the sales of new cars in the French market fell by 11.2%, and the new car registration of passenger cars was 169400. The decline in sales was mainly due to the cancellation of the government's new car consumption stimulus plan

Figure 2 monthly sales of automobiles in China unit: 10000 vehicles

the figure shows the trend of monthly sales of automobiles in the United States. (picture source: Ministry of industry and information technology)

the performance of the domestic and foreign tire markets is inconsistent. The domestic and foreign markets are seriously divided, and the production and sales situation of European and American tire manufacturers remains good. The financial report performance in the first quarter rose sharply. For example, the global sales of Hantai tire in the first quarter of 2011 increased by 16.3% year-on-year to 1.4 trillion won, setting the highest quarterly sales record in the world. Michelin's sales in the first quarter confirmed that it could carry out rapid charge and discharge of 30C, with an increase of 28%, more than 5billion euros, hitting the best level in history. Goodyear's first quarter revenue also hit a record high. It is expected that the annual production and sales are still optimistic, and good sales and profits make these tire manufacturers continue to buy natural rubber raw materials. The excellent sales performance makes the manufacturers actively purchase natural rubber raw materials, and the transaction price is higher than that of domestic manufacturers, and the origin suppliers also actively supply

in contrast, in China, under the pressure and regulation of policies, tire enterprises are facing the pressure of capital turnover under severe tightening, production and sales are relatively depressed, the profit and loss situation of various factories is seriously differentiated, and some manufacturers are still on the edge of loss. Manufacturers mainly digest the existing inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and buy as you use. The inventory of the previous period was quickly digested. On April 29, the inventory was less than 13000 tons, a record low

Figure 3 natural rubber inventory unit of the previous period: yuan/ton

the figure shows the trend of natural rubber inventory of the previous period. (picture source: Wenhua Finance)

conclusion or operation suggestions:

in May, the negative factors in the natural rubber market occupied the main position. The continuous improvement of upstream supply, the relatively weak demand of downstream auto tire industry, the negative pressure brought by domestic regulation and control measures, and the accumulation of multiple factors made the rubber price face great downward pressure, and Shanghai rubber will continue to fluctuate downward. The supporting role of the market mainly comes from the good performance of some downstream consumer markets, such as the rapid recovery of the car market in North America and emerging markets, and the increase in raw material demand driven by the sharp improvement in the sales and profits of international tire enterprises. In the domestic spot market, the rubber inventory in the previous period has reached a record low, and the inventory was only about 13000 tons at the end of April. If the spot in Qingdao free trade zone also decreases rapidly, the relative high demand of tire enterprises and the external market will boost the Shanghai Rubber and domestic spot prices. You can pay more attention to the recent reduction of domestic spot. Technically, after the continuous decline of Shanghai Jiao, it has approached the integer level of 30000 yuan and the low point at the end of November last year. First of all, we should pay attention to the support of yuan, and empty orders can be held. If it falls below the above range, the further support level is 26400 yuan in early October 2010

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Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI