The hottest global supply surge, lithium prices ma

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Global supply surged, and lithium prices may fall by 45%

the rise of new energy vehicle industry has expanded the market demand for lithium resources, making lithium prices soar. However, recently, Morgan Stanley reported that the supply of lithium may exceed the demand for lithium in new energy vehicles in the future, and the price of lithium may fall by 45% in 2021

Mr. Wang, who works in the new energy industry, told that in addition to new energy vehicle suppliers, the appeal of the new energy industry is to reduce the price of lithium batteries. The conclusion of the report is positive for the new energy industry

according to the calculation of Goldman Sachs Group, the demand for lithium in a Tesla Model s electric vehicle battery is equivalent to the total demand for lithium in 10000 smart batteries. As countries have formulated schedules for the elimination of fuel vehicles and actively promoted the popularization of new energy vehicles, the new energy vehicle market has entered a stage of rapid development

global sales of new energy vehicles have maintained a sustained high growth in recent years. According to relevant data, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2015 was 519100, an increase of 73.03% year-on-year; In 2016, it was 764300, an increase of 47.24% year-on-year; 2. The number of channels, units and decimal points displayed can be configured. In 2017, there were 1224100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 60.16%

lithium carbonate is an important raw material for power batteries. From the perspective of the whole market, the increasing demand for lithium batteries in the new energy vehicle industry has led to the rising price of lithium. According to the data of zhuochuang information, a market research institution, the largest increase in the domestic market price of battery grade lithium carbonate in 2017 was 47.54%, once approaching the high price of 180000 yuan per ton

the article of metal miner, an American industrial metals research journal, pointed out that lithium resources were very abundant in the past and now. If there was a shortage, it was only the lack of large-scale extraction. Therefore, the rise in lithium prices will encourage more investment in mining, thereby increasing the supply of lithium

it is understood that due to the high price of lithium, lithium salt processing enterprises, power battery enterprises and vehicle enterprises have all deployed the lithium resource market, and many companies that were originally unrelated to lithium have also begun to deploy this market, resulting in the continuous increase of global lithium supply. Chile, Australia and other major lithium mining areas in the world are expanding lithium production

Morgan Stanley pointed out in its report that the world's largest lithium supplier from Chile is planning new projects recently, and plans to increase lithium production by 500000 tons per year until 2025. Among them, two low-cost lithium suppliers, Chilean Chemical Mining Company USA (SQM) and Alberta wedge jaw RLE, will increase lithium production by 200000 tons each year, making Chile's lithium supply ranking third in the world

Chile's rapidly growing lithium supply will largely cover the global demand for lithium, thus challenging China, the United States and Australia. It is understood that the United States and Australia can increase lithium supply by mining new mines, but the production cost is higher than that of Chile. However, China has acquired overseas lithium resource companies for many times in recent years to expand lithium production because of its lack of lithium resources and the difficulty of mining domestic lithium mines

Morgan Stanley predicts that due to the expansion of lithium production in all countries, the lithium supply will increase by 16% per year from 2017 to 2025, while the demand growth in the same period is only 12% per year. Finally, 2018 will be the last year when the global lithium market will be in short supply, and the lithium market will be oversupplied after 2019. The report also said that when predicting the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the market relied too much on the commitments of automobile manufacturers and did not fully consider the value proposition of consumers and the required infrastructure

prices are affected by the relationship between supply and demand. The substantial increase in lithium supply and the overestimation of wooden containers for lithium, which are always the most widely used packaging, will impact the price of lithium in the future

the report predicts that due to the current tight supply-demand relationship of lithium, the price will not change much in the short term, but in the long run, the price of lithium will inevitably fall. It is expected that the price of lithium will fall from $13375 per ton in 2018 to $8523 per ton in 2020, and will further fall to $7332 per ton in 2021. About 2025, the price of lithium will drop to its production cost of about $7030 per ton

head of commodity research, Scotiabank Ben ˙ Ben Isaacson also expects that in the long run, the price of lithium will fall to $8000 to $10000 per ton

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