The hottest global stimulus to automobile consumpt

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Global automobile consumption has been stimulated to a new high

in recent stages, domestic and foreign rubber markets have always been operating in a phased upward trend. On April 13, the Tokyo rubber continuous index hit a high of 179.66 yen/kg on November 12 last year, reaching a new high of 177.87 yen/kg for more than four months; On the 16th, the Shanghai Rubber continuous index hit a high of 18258 yuan on October 10 last year, reaching a new high of 15737 yuan in more than five months. The main contracts were once closed at the daily limit. The author believes that the U.S. automakers have received rescue funds, countries around the world have generally carried out large-scale stimulus plans for the automotive industry, while Chinese cars have also been encouraged by the industrial revitalization plan to grow steadily, and the upstream supply is becoming increasingly tight, which has led to the steady and phased rise of the natural rubber market. These materials can meet the requirements of high strength, high wear resistance, boiling resistance, high temperature resistance and so on

U.S. automakers have received financial assistance

General Motors and Chrysler have received $3.5 billion in aid from the U.S. government to launch plans aimed at improving the status of their suppliers and resuming credit activities in key industries. Chrysler said it had enough time to reach a final agreement with Italian automaker Fiat before the government deadline of May 1, so that the company would not suffer bankruptcy. The U.S. auto industry, encouraged by the government's sales incentives, may slowly come out of the trough in the future, which will have a strong positive impact on the natural rubber market

domestic automobile consumption has increased significantly

in March, the role of national policies to stimulate the economy continued to take effect, and the automobile market has begun to gradually recover. In that month, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 1million, both of which reached a record high in monthly production and sales. In the first quarter, automobile production and sales picked up month by month, with low-speed growth. Passenger cars were significantly better than commercial vehicles, and automobile inventories fell. The impact of the policy was obvious. However, the real improvement of the automotive industry needs further observation

in the first quarter, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.5676 million and 2.6788 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.91% and 3.88%. In March, the national automobile production and sales rate reached 101.31%, continuing to maintain a high level of production and sales rate, and the industry inventory continued to hit a new low in the past two years. At present, the domestic Internet ordering platform uses about 40million plastic lunch boxes a day, which promotes car sales due to the role of policies and the expectation of economic improvement

comparing the operation status and development prospects of the domestic and foreign automobile industry, it can be seen that although the automobile industry is relatively low due to the economic crisis, the automobile industry is expected to explore a low recovery due to the impact of various countries' policies and measures to stimulate the automobile industry. Among them, Chinese cars may be the first to recover, which leads to the continuous rise of Tianjiao

the supply of upstream raw materials is tight

the global natural rubber production is expected to decline by 2.2% to 8.9 million tons this year, due to the reduction of natural rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. At the same time, most production areas in Southeast Asia and some domestic production areas have suffered severe drought and disastrous climate attacks, which may lead to the reduction of the scale of new rubber cutting in the future. At the same time, due to the acquisition of the Thai government and the acquisition of domestic reserves, artificial production reduction is caused. Therefore, in the future, the supply of natural rubber may show a trend of slack in the peak season, so as to curb the seasonal decline of spot rubber prices. At the same time, in terms of macro finance, due to the quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by the US Federal Reserve, the US dollar was suppressed, and the US dollar index moved around, which constituted a strong support for the Tianjiao market. In addition, in terms of related varieties, due to the continuous production reduction of OPEC and the international crude oil price running above $50, the prices of CIS polybutadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber exceeded 13000 yuan and 12000 yuan respectively, ranking first among the seven national high-tech industrial bases of new material industry in China, which also played a supporting role for natural rubber

to sum up, Tokyo Jiao and Shanghai Jiao are also relatively low in the future market after moderate adjustment, and are expected to continue to challenge the resistance of higher prices

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